WEEKLY ROUNDUP · JANUARY 18, 2026
The start of 2026 has been marked by a forceful shift toward "production sovereignty" across the continent. As global trade face dual shocks from US tariffs and Chinese industrial overcapacity, Africa is increasingly looking inward—strengthening regional integration through the AfCFTA and tightening control over its primary resources. From Ghana's aggressive mining reforms to Nigeria's significant energy stake acquisitions, local players are reclaiming the narrative of African growth.
MARKET MOVING
Ghana Forces Pivot: Stability Deals Scrapped to Double Gold Royalties
Ghana, Africa’s largest gold producer, is set to terminate long-term mining stability agreements and double royalty rates. The government intends to capture a higher share of windfall revenues as gold prices soar, reflecting a broader regional push to renegotiate terms with multinational firms. Read more →
→ This signifies the end of the "investment at any cost" era; markets should brace for increased regulatory risk as resource nationalism becomes the primary tool for fiscal re-balancing.
Consolidation Pressures Mount in Nigeria’s Banking Reset
As the central bank's recapitalisation deadline looms, mid-tier Nigerian banks are accelerating merger talks. High interest rates and weak liquidity have made standalone capital raising nearly impossible for smaller players, leading to a projected "survival of the fittest" market restructuring. Read more →
→ Successful mergers will create regional heavyweights capable of funding large-scale infrastructure, but the short-term risk of IT integration failures could temporarily disrupt credit flows.
UNDER THE RADAR
Standard Chartered’s Full Botswana Exit Looming
The London-based lender is finalizing the sale of its entire local unit in Botswana, continuing a silent pullback from smaller frontier markets. This follows exits from Zimbabwe, Angola, and Gambia as global banks struggle with rising compliance costs and local competitive pressures. Read more →
→ While this creates a vacuum in international trade finance, it provides a massive opportunity for pan-African banks like Access and Ecobank to deepen their regional dominance.
CONTRARIAN VIEW
The "Devaluation Dividend" in Nigeria
Contrary to the purely negative narrative, Nigeria's Central Bank Governor argues that the currency's deep slide has actually provided a "complete restructuring" of the economy. By making imports prohibitively expensive, it has forced a long-overdue pivot to domestic production and a positive balance of trade. Read more →
→ Investors should look past short-term currency pain to find sectors like manufacturing and agribusiness that are now gaining a structural competitive advantage against foreign goods.
DATA POINT
$500M |
|---|
The amount Angola secured by extending its JP-Morgan debt facility, signalling that capital remains available for resource-backed sovereigns despite global caution. Source |
LOOKING AHEAD
As the expiration of the original AGOA agreement begins to rattle export planning, keep a sharp eye on the US Senate's deliberative pace on the new extension. Simultaneously, the success of Morocco’s $10 billion AI-by-2030 goal will likely provide a benchmark for other regional leaders. If North African gains in tech services can be replicated south of the Sahara, we may see a definitive decoupling of growth from extractives.